Vice Chairman Tony Tjan is a recognized thought leader in the business arena and is one of the World Economic Forum Global Leaders of Tomorrow. He has a regular blog on Harvard Business Review online, providing insights on a range of topics.
This issue of Parthenon Perspectives focuses on the fiscal cliff: how big is it, and what is its impact on the economy and federal debt under various scenarios? The unmistakable takeaway is that business leaders must be prepared for significantly different outcomes on the macroeconomic front.
by Tracy Pun Palandjian, The Parthenon Group; Bridges Ventures
There has been rising interest within the investment community in making sustainable investments which generate a positive social or environmental impact as well as financial, often market-rate, returns. Impact investment funds are attracting investors ranging from high-net-worth individuals to institutional investors, corporations and foundations. The newly published Parthenon/Bridges report, titled Investing for Impact: Case Studies Across Asset Classes, examines the growing Impact Investment sector and illustrates the perspectives of over 50 pioneers in this increasingly vibrant space. To bring greater understanding of the sector, the report presents a system for cataloguing investment opportunities using the traditional asset allocation model familiar to the investment community. 18 case studies have been documented in detail to illustrate the diversity of opportunities by asset class, risk and investor motivation.
Private philanthropy and government subsidies are no longer sufficient sources to address social and environmental concerns. The challenging current economic conditions - plummeting endowments and the shrinking budgets of non-profit organizations and governments - combined with the threat of climate, render impact investments more important than ever. Mobilizing the capital markets to help solve deep seated social and environmental challenges on a large scale is key to creating a more sustainable form of market capitalism.
Parthenon's Chief Economist, Roger Brinner provides an updated outlook on the economy. Bottom line, our March forecast of anemic U.S. GDP growth of 2% in 2012 and 2013 holds. Europe's situation has definitely taken a turn for the worst. Short of a "Grand Compromise," Europe will struggle as is evidenced by its retreat back to recession. The most recent U.S. jobs report indicated rising unemployment, which garnered much public attention. While both of these events would lead one to believe that our forecast would be revised downward, the reality is that Roger had already baked this into his March forecast.
Parthenon's Chairman and Managing Partner, Bill Achtmeyer, Parthenon's Chief Economist, Roger Brinner, and Parthenon's Deputy Chief Economist, Richard DeKaser provide an updated outlook on the economy. It is not very different from the outlook presented for the past six months; the message of the "Guardrail" memo last fall was that neither extreme optimism nor pessimism was appropriate, and the same is true today. Only now the risk is that people have become overly optimistic, the reverse of last fall. The economy is actually running very close to our projections and models, with one exception: the labor market.
Parthenon's Chairman and Managing Partner, Bill Achtmeyer, and Parthenon's Chief Economist, Roger Brinner, provide insights and analysis behind our view on how fear has depressed equity markets to the tune of approximately 45%.
Emotions rather than logic are driving opinions, actions, and markets. The resulting volatility is abetted by too little attention to the facts of the economic and financial situation. This Parthenon Perspective aims to add clarity and forecast logical outcomes.
A more comprehensive point of view will be published in the near future.
President Obama and Chairman Bernanke are taking undeserved global grief. The new, self-crowned masters of economic policy—Germany, China, Britain, and Brazil—feel it is time to teach the President and Chairman their course in macroeconomics. Not so fast. The over-arching truths are that 1) Germany has a miserable track record over the past three decades with regards to creating an economic recovery for their nation, and 2) a healthy America begets a healthy world. Read on for more analysis on our opinion.
In this May Parthenon Perspective webcast, our Chairman and Managing Partner, Bill Achtmeyer and our Partner and Chief Economist, Roger Brinner share our analysis and insights on the following topics: The “Great Recession” in Historical Perspective, The Range of Opinion on the Outlook, Global Comparison, Challenges to the US Recovery After 2010, and Facts and Myths: Consumer Behavior (based on Parthenon’s proprietary survey of 1,500 consumers)
Our April Parthenon Perspective includes the 2010 economic forecast from our Partner and Chief Economist, Dr. Roger Brinner. Parthenon distributes economic advisories to provide our clients with an analysis of the current economic environment.
Everyone hears the message of turning adversity into opportunity. The question we address is whether there is any objective evidence that companies actually can accomplish this given the current economic environment. Our answer...absolutely yes.
Winston Churchill's shrewd remark spotlights the tendency of ill-informed pundits to dictate the tone of public discussion whenever knowledgeable opinion leaders remain silent. Today, this is surely a widespread problem. Apocalyptic chatter dominates the news outlets, and even well-meaning journalists, executives and investors struggle to extract clear signals from the background uproar. Sometimes the difficulty stems from an unawareness of clear historical analogies. More often it arises from the lack of a strong, high-level armory of facts concerning current conditions.
Vice-Chairman of The Parthenon Group, has co-authored the above article for the March 2008 issue of Harvard Business Review. The article examines how customer driven strategies can be applied in a B2B setting using an approach called Front End Customer Strategy